Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 7.539782 8.664572 9.878706 11.284075 12.863263 14.580175 16.585269
2026-02-08 5.795208 7.290935 9.033977 11.204647 13.823904 16.870300 20.668675
2026-02-15 4.870237 6.499904 8.495335 11.098626 14.383178 18.365630 23.532833
2026-02-22 4.233705 5.958022 8.164526 11.163641 15.097543 20.041458 26.678000
2026-03-01 3.839558 5.655136 8.067533 11.462091 16.061883 22.017143 30.238040
2026-03-08 3.354729 5.164277 7.657542 11.284024 16.351880 23.099127 32.659687
2026-03-15 2.859350 4.596464 7.076077 10.799930 16.159753 23.487869 34.130655
2026-03-22 2.664676 4.444256 7.061647 11.099409 17.055779 25.380595 37.718664
2026-03-29 2.472896 4.273174 6.997947 11.310064 17.820644 27.109840 41.140486
2026-04-05 2.234580 4.002455 6.756551 11.227896 18.136660 28.197257 43.678934
2026-04-12 2.012999 3.734892 6.494092 11.086228 18.341487 29.115513 45.992618
2026-04-19 1.846043 3.540995 6.329970 11.080412 18.742588 30.328367 48.776184
2026-04-26 1.709203 3.388979 6.226572 11.171386 19.310287 31.835607 52.098425
2026-05-03 1.555549 3.191467 6.030464 11.094155 19.601611 32.928767 54.835062
2026-05-10 1.414674 3.001654 5.829398 10.988540 19.830354 33.920323 57.437211
2026-05-17 1.314756 2.878437 5.733753 11.053168 20.337415 35.365421 60.799144
2026-05-24 1.257371 2.831768 5.770645 11.348946 21.244276 37.484689 65.309824
2026-05-31 1.140912 2.654713 5.552848 11.172456 21.326628 38.255105 67.663635
2026-06-07 0.998634 2.408722 5.184201 10.692597 20.846803 38.064024 68.422749
2026-06-14 0.961297 2.380958 5.232731 10.989452 21.756665 40.237985 73.177301
2026-06-21 0.916534 2.332325 5.235752 11.198263 22.514731 42.178797 77.604655
2026-06-28 0.844937 2.216176 5.093774 11.116813 22.734227 43.195642 80.494657
2026-07-05 0.773930 2.093499 4.928148 10.976385 22.833174 44.000282 83.041703